Tropical Depression 12 is barely holding itself together, according to new satellite data, but a second threat pushing into the Caribbean Sea is gaining steam.
TD 12 formed about 530 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands with sustained winds of 35 mph moving northwest at 9 mph. As of 11 am TD 12 is barely a depression and losing organization due to strong vertical wind shear, keeping the depression’s form ragged and unable to gain strength, said NHC specialist Andy Latto in the NHC’s 11 am discussion.
“The shear affecting the depression is forecast to increase further, while the system ingests dry air to its west,” Latto said. Storm models predict the depression to become a remnant low by Thursday.
Meanwhile, another potential threat is moving toward the Caribbean with a strong likelihood of becoming the next tropical depression.
A low-pressure system is east of the southern Windward Islands and pushing toward the Caribbean Sea at 15 mph, the NHC said in an 8 am tropical outlook. The wave had its odds of development increase to 80% over the next five days. The wave also has a 60% chance of developing in the next two days. A tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days as upper-level winds become more favorable. For now, the system lacks a well-defined circulating center.
Later this week as it enters the central and western Caribbean Sea, chances for formation increase due to Caribbean sea-surface temperatures measuring in an ideal heat for tropical growth: about 84 degrees in the region of water the low is darting toward, according to the Spectrum News 13 SST map.
An Air Force reconnaissance mission is currently en route to investigate the system this morning, according to the NHC.
“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days,” said Daniel Brown , an NHC specialist.
If the system becomes a tropical storm it will receive the moniker, Julia.
So far, the 2022 hurricane season has produced nine named storms and one more tropical depression that spun up and fell apart while Ian was striking Florida. The NHC also tracked one other potential cyclone that never grew into a depression, so that is why the most recent tropical depression is named TD 12.
Initially, the season was off to a slow start with a quiet July and August, but the season has picked up the pace since Sept. 1 with the emergence of four hurricanes including Fiona and Ian in the last two weeks. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the season to be an above-average year in storm production calling for 14-21 named storms. An average year has 14.
Hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
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